Seaborne thermal coal prices in Asia have dropped to their lowest levels in four years, weighed down by reduced imports from key buyers: China, India, and Japan.
The downtrend, which began in October 2024, has recently accelerated as import volumes continue to decline. Prices for coal from major exporters such as Indonesia and Australia have followed suit, struggling to remain competitive in the face of weakening demand.
According to Kpler data, China, the world’s largest thermal coal importer, brought in 22.72 million metric tons in April, down from 23.84 million in March. Over the first four months of 2025, China imported 91.56 million tons, a 13.1% decline year-on-year.
This drop is mainly driven by two factors: reduced coal-fired power generation (down 4.7% in Q1 2025) and record-high domestic coal output. In March alone, China produced 440.58 million tons (+9.6% YoY), bringing Q1 production to 1.2 billion tons (+8.1%).
As a result, domestic coal prices have weakened significantly. SteelHome assessed Qinhuangdao thermal coal at 660 yuan/ton (about $90.78) last week, a 4-year low and 25% below October levels.
Import prices have followed suit. Australian 5,500 kcal/kg coal – a preferred grade among Chinese buyers – dropped below $70/ton for the first time since May 2021, reaching $69.98. That’s 22.5% below its recent October peak. Indonesian 4,200 kcal/kg coal also fell to $48.42/ton, down 7.5%, though it has shown slightly more resilience due to Indian demand.
India imported 15.31 million tons in April, the highest monthly volume since May 2024. While total imports for Jan–Apr 2025 are still down 6.7% YoY (53.33 million tons), the Indian government has extended a mandate requiring power plants using imported coal to operate at full capacity until June 30. This, along with Coal India’s lackluster production (+1% YoY vs. a target of +7%), could support demand for imported cargoes in the near term.
Japan, Asia’s third-largest thermal coal importer, also recorded a 4.9% YoY drop, with 34.71 million tons imported from January to April 2025. Japan mainly imports higher-grade Australian coal, and prices for the 6,000 kcal/kg grade ticked up slightly to $93.79 last week, after hitting a 4-year low of $91.58.
In summary, Asian thermal coal prices are falling in step with shrinking demand, particularly from China. Unless Chinese coal-fired output rebounds or domestic production slows, further price pressure appears likely.
Source: Reuters
