The Handysize market in the Black Sea and Mediterranean has exhibited a paralysis in the past three weeks, with rates remaining relatively stable despite fluctuations in other regions. This stagnation coincides with the Chinese New Year holiday, traditionally leading to reduced activity in Asian markets; although really, nowadays has a more psychological than real effect on the economy. Nevertheless, Handy market as highlighted globally by Baltic Handysize Index continued its slow decline since the beginning of the year.
As of yesterday, February 13th, 2024, the Blacksea-WestMed route for Handysize stands around a Time charter equivalent of $11,750 per day, almost unchanged from earlier periods even if a bit higher than the beginning of January. Similarly, charter rates for comparable routes show minimal movement as like as the Bsea-Continent route. Not even the tensions in red sea seem to have particularly affected the market of the handy, also the bsea-feast route although slightly increased remains stagnant around $24,000 per day via suez and $21,000 per day via Cape of Good Hope.
This stability contrasts with the broader Dry Bulk market, which has seen some volatility, particularly in Supramax and Panamax segments as shown by negative trend of Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) which underline the uncertainty of market in next period
While the reasons for the Blacksea-Med’s stability remain unclear, potential explanations include:
Lower impact of Chinese New Year: Compared to Asia, the Blacksea-Med region might have a less pronounced slowdown during the holiday, limiting its effect on rates.
Regional cargo activity: The continued low demand for raw materials such as cereals and steel does not help the recovery that could support Handysize’s activity.
Limited vessel availability: A balanced supply-demand equation in the region might prevent significant rate fluctuations even if the persistence/worsening of the situation in red sea could lead to an imbalance of ships and transport demand in the area
Looking ahead, the Handysize market in the Blacksea-Med is likely to face continued uncertainty. Monitoring regional demand, geopolitical developments, and the broader Dry Bulk market trends will be crucial to anticipating future movements in rates and activity.
