Over the past year, wheat commodity prices have experienced moderate volatility, shaped by shifting supply conditions, geopolitical factors, and transportation costs. After elevated levels in previous years, prices in 2025 generally softened due to improved global production prospects. The “International Grains Council” projected a record for the 2025/26 season, contributing to downward pressure on prices, while some benchmarks showed slight year-to-date declines in major exporting regions.
It’s worth mentioning that, however, the overall easing masked regional disruptions; Wheat shipments from the Black Sea declined sharply by over 18% year-on-year in early 2025 due to weather-related harvest issues and export restrictions, particularly from Russia (due to clear geopolitical issues). These supply constraints intermittently supported prices, especially in importing regions dependent on Black Sea flows. At the same time, prices remained sensitive to currency movements and demand shifts, with a stronger euro, for instance, weighing on EU export competitiveness.
A key but often underappreciated driver of wheat price dynamics has been dry bulk sea transportation. Wheat is primarily shipped via bulk carriers, making freight rates an important component of landed costs. Over the second half of 2025, freight rates were relatively high due to vessel shortages, geopolitical risks, and weather disruptions. This increased the cost of delivered grain, partially offsetting falling commodity prices.
The interaction between wheat prices and shipping costs highlights a crucial dynamic: even when farm gate or export prices fall, high freight rates can keep import costs elevated, and vice versa. Over the past year, as said, we saw an increase in the shipping freight rates, which has contributed to a more balanced global grain market, though volatility persists due to weather risks, trade policies, and shifting maritime demand.
