For the first time in 20 years, during 2023 Mexico overtook China in exports to the U.S. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, last year the U.S. imported a total of $427.2 billion of goods from China, a roughly 20% decrease from the year before. Meanwhile, Mexico exportations to the U.S. increased to $475.6 billion, up 5% from 2022.
In addition, last week the thinktank Xeneta posted an in-depth research regarding the evolution of China trades into Mexico, underlining that maybe something is hiding between the numbers. In January 2024 container shipping demand from China to Mexico West Coast increased by a massive 59.7% compared to January 2023, rising from 73,000 TEU to 117,000 TEU. As the next chart shows, annual growth in container shipping between the two countries had already increased by 34.8% in 2023 compared to just 3.5% in 2022.
With a sizeable portion of these goods likely being trucked into the US, Peter Sand, Xeneta’s Chief Analyst, believes the latest data may be further evidence of businesses attempting to circumvent tariffs on goods imported from China into the United States, which have ramped up during the ongoing trade war between the nations. China is accused of exploiting the free-trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada, known as USMCA, signed in 2020.
Many Chinese exports are simply taking “a slightly longer road to get to the same place”, says Ana Gutiérrez of IMCO, a think-tank in Mexico City.
The next picture, published in the weekly newspaper The Economist, focuses on the type of Chinese goods exported to Mexico from 2020 to 2022. Steel and aluminium are the main concerns, together with electric vehicles and auto parts.
At the same time, the suspicion is that Mexico turns a blind eye to imports from China, and that those are then re-exported to the United States. If Mr Trump wins th e Presidential U.S. elections in November, he is likely to adopt a harder stance toward Mexico, since the United States’ trade deficit with Mexico rose to $152bn in 2023, up 17% from 2022. In 2026 Mexico and the United States, along with Canada, have to discuss whether to extend USMCA’s validity by another 16 years, to expire in 2052 instead of 2036. Mr Trump signed USMCA, but that is no guarantee that he would not scrap it.
Container statistics will probably point out again current international trade between China, Mexico and the U.S., underlining how maritime trade represents a critical subject in geopolitics and how this could represent the next trade war between the United States and its major trade partners.
mexico tradewar xeneta container
